FMF - Friends of Minerals Forum, discussion and message board

[Jordi Fabre]

[Peter Lemkin]

2% mortality rate seems the best guess now, but it is too early to tell the real number and it will be much higher in developing nations, poor nations, nations with limited healthcare facilities needed for breathing support etc. This % is about the same as for the 1918 pandemic. I hate to do the math and put the result here because this is more infective, infects when people are asymptomatic and there are many more people now than in 1918 [4,5x], plus the greater movement between parts of the world of people and things,.......the number [I just did the calculation] is mind-numbingly high total death toll.....I'll not write it to keep people from getting too depressed and will hope I'm wrong.

The only thing that could change the HUGE number [nine digit] would be someone finding an antibody or other anti-viral that lowers or stops the morbidity....VERY soon! One will eventually be made [such is the state of technology now], but usually these take a year or two to make and test.....too late for too many. The '1918' flue pandemic actually lasted a full two years. It is not impossible this one could last from six months [likely minimium governments have so far been afraid to tell] - to a year - but if it does not it will likely be in waves according to season [less in summers, more in winters]. The scariest part of this virus I left for last...there is growing evidence that some percentage of persons who recover can be re-infected [this doesn't happen with other flu viruses] AND there is some evidence that it is mutating to more virulant strains in some places [such as Iran now].....so this one is a BAD one, and yes, it will effect the World economy deeply. I think it will also make many re-evaluate entire political, social, health and other systems in which they live - and how their political and other leaders where they live handled this crisis. We are all in this together and we can only get out of this if we act together......intelligently...using science and medicine. Sadly, there will be [already are!!] restrictions on personal freedoms - and these MUST be reasonable and made to seem reasonable to the public or there will be unrest on a large scale. I'm sure we will make it through this...but I predict the World will be changed in ways we can not forsee; however, we have control over how we react to and handle this crisis!

...and to think this very likely started with one bat purchased in China for food.... Ebola also started with bats infecting a few persons in Africa......

So, love your minerals as well as your friends, family, pets, Nature.....this is going to be a 'bumpy' and rough ride...... especially in cities.

[Jordi Fabre]

Third day, Monday March 16 2020

As this seems that will be long better use the humor.

[R Saunders]

Or

[cascaillou]

In France, it has been suggested that for the next two weeks people should either stay at home or go to work. Either we don't need a quarantine, or we need a real one, but a half-quarantine doesn't make any sense (what if half the population stays home and the other half just goes to work?). Why not also provide sick people with only half of a treatment, let's see how it goes...
Also, 2 weeks of quarantine for a disease that can have up to 2 weeks of incubation period, but without any screening unless severe symptoms are experienced (which could occur only in the third week)?
Am I missing something?

[Dany Mabillard]

[Jordi Fabre]

Fourth day, Tuesday March 17 2020 in Barcelona

This is going to be tough and long...

[Peter Lemkin]

[Dany Mabillard]

I just received the news that the medical consultations of my orthopedist will close for one month. The situation must be very bad if they begin to postpone my first consultation after a hip replacement. I totally understand the decision because we must put priorities but it's a signal of the gravity of the situation in Switzerland too.

[Peter Lemkin]

Wow, it is getting crazy in the Czech Republic now! Yesterday one could NOT get on a tram/train/bus without having a mask [even though masks are IMPOSSIBLE TO BUY, and most do not have them]. Today at midnight it will be ILLEGAL to go outside without a mask!...and for persons my age and older you can only go to any shop between 10-12 [which is illogical from my epidemiology training]. The fine is about 800 Euro maximum. What next?! I live alone and have a dog who must go out frequently. Oh, my, this will NOT be easy. Every day there is a new and more drastic emergency rule!......... I resent having to plan my day to go out shopping only for two hours and two exact hours.

[Jordi Fabre]

Fifth day, Wednesday March 18 2020 in Barcelona

Small flashes of hope ("aplastamiento" de la curva) and China and USA are already preparing a possible vaccine, but then we know that in Italy the number of deaths has skyrocketed and will soon exceed that of China. At the same time, we know that by the signal from the mobile phones the Italian Government has learned that in Lombardy, 40% of the population continues to move up and down freely 😫

Everyone is in our houses and if we need to go out, do it with a mask, gloves, and more than a meter from any other person, whoever they are!

[Peter Lemkin]

Scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel. The results provide key information about the stability of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19 disease, and suggests that people may acquire the virus through the air and after touching contaminated objects.

The NIH scientists, from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories, compared how the environment affects SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1, which causes SARS. SARS-CoV-1, like its successor now circulating across the globe, emerged from China and infected more than 8,000 people in 2002 and 2003. SARS-CoV-1 was eradicated by intensive contact tracing and case isolation measures and no cases have been detected since 2004. SARS-CoV-1 is the human coronavirus most closely related to SARS-CoV-2. In the stability study the two viruses behaved similarly, which unfortunately fails to explain why COVID-19 has become a much larger outbreak.

The NIH study attempted to mimic virus being deposited from an infected person onto everyday surfaces in a household or hospital setting, such as through coughing or touching objects. The scientists then investigated how long the virus remained infectious on these surfaces.

The scientists highlighted additional observations from their study:

If the viability of the two coronaviruses is similar, why is SARS-CoV-2 resulting in more cases? Emerging evidence suggests that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 might be spreading virus without recognizing, or prior to recognizing, symptoms. This would make disease control measures that were effective against SARS-CoV-1 less effective against its successor.
In contrast to SARS-CoV-1, most secondary cases of virus transmission of SARS-CoV-2 appear to be occurring in community settings rather than healthcare settings. However, healthcare settings are also vulnerable to the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2, and the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols and on surfaces likely contributes to transmission of the virus in healthcare settings.

The findings affirm the guidance from public health professionals to use precautions similar to those for influenza and other respiratory viruses to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2:

Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
Stay home when you are sick.
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.

[R Saunders]

They have now closed the US-Canada boarder except for special circumstances. General Motors say that they a stopping all North American production. don't need a new car or truck. Even some motels and hotels closed, like New Mexico.

hope this not out of line,

[Bob Harman]

Peter L has extensively discussed the current and probable near term health aspects of the Coronavirus outbreak, but what he has not discussed is the upcoming very major ramifications to the world's economies.
Just now we are seeing the first glimpses of worldwide recession. The US stock market is off nearly 33% in just a month. People with little money have less and/or no job. People with significant money now suddenly have a lot less.

Millions laid off from work. Millions with reduced work hours. Millions with significant financial hits. In addition to those who will have medical bills.

For all our forum posters, the least of people concerns will be their hobbies and collections. Mineral shows are just now beginning to be cancelled. The cancellations will increase, probably well into this summer.
In the US, the August East Coast Show and the September Denver Show are at risk. In Europe, I strongly suspect that the Ste Marie (SMAM) show will be cancelled. Maybe even to the October Munich Show.....who knows.

Even if those shows were to take place, there might very well be a significant reduction in attendance and sales. I suspect fewer out of town visitors willing to travel and spend money until well after this whole situation resolves itself and their finances become back to firm ground.
Any overly optimistic individual now seems like the proverbial Nero, fiddling while all around him Rome is burning!

UGH!!! Bob

[Peter Lemkin]

I thought I was already the gloomiest poster on the thread, so didn't want to get into the economic shock we are all in for. II think it will be MAJOR, worldwide. For myself, personally it is already a disaser. I do scientific editing and teaching. Teaching has ended without pay and my clients for editing of their scientific papers are all off work and confuses and not sending papers for editing...so my income has gone to zero in per month!...WITH BILLS TO PAY! This will be a HUGE economic shock to all but the most well off...the rest of us are in for a big fall. I don't expect the government 'bail-outs' will help very much - or not to all that need it. What is needed is a moratorium on rent, utilitity bills, mortgage payments, loan payments etc.

Thank goodness for the internet, or I think I'd already have gone 'mad'...and this is just the beginning of a looooong period out of a bad science fiction film.....

The latest 'rule' here in Czech Republic is that anyone over 65 [like me] can ONLY go to shops between 10 and noon!...which I think is a bit stupid and punitive. We can still go to parks and Nature and I'm taking advantage of that - as they may soon forbid that!